Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ff9…e494 sports 1024 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$933 (-3%) realized −$933 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%342W / 682L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$63
14 days−$123
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,373
other 5% −$4
politics 0% +$8
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.9% -17.6% 43% 40% -19.1%
≤30d 71 -23.7% -31.0% 34% 31% -24.9%
≤90d 203 -11.3% -19.8% 36% 35% -19.0%
all 1024 -9.0% -17.7% 33% 33% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 33% -13.6%
10% -25.6% 32% -21.9%
15% -32.7% 30% -29.4%
20% -39.3% 28% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$23 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$933
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses342 / 682
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1024 / 1024
History coverage593d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1024 Trades
no open positions (437 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$14 +118%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 +$5 +46%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $5 +$15 +287%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $18 −$12 -68%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $13 −$12 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $54 +$3 +6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $30 −$9 -32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$12 +97%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $12 +$16 +134%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$19 +46%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $29 +$44 +152%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $18 $0 -2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $40 +$15 +38%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $28 +$15 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $32 −$2 -6%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $23 +$30 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $10 +$13 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $22 −$22 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $50 −$49 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $20 −$19 -98%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $64 +$2 +3%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $17 +$14 +79%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $39 +$57 +146%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $21 +$21 +100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $17 −$7 -40%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs James McCabe Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $12 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 64¢ $20 8h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $20 8h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 25¢ $5 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 26¢ $8 32h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 30¢ $5 32h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 71¢ $12 32h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 30¢ $5 32h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 20¢ $10 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 12¢ $5 33h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 21¢ $6 34h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 19¢ $2 34h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 99¢ $28 34h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $17 34h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $17 34h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $17 43h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $10 45h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 48¢ $10 46h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 47¢ $20 46h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 48¢ $10 47h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 46¢ $10 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $13 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 71¢ $20 2d
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 13¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2113 history records