Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7ff6…010e sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+5%) realized +$79 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$11
14 days+$40
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$44
other 11% −$4
finance 7% +$23
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 67 +6.2% -3.9% 66% 51% -4.3%
≤90d 67 +6.2% -3.9% 66% 51% -4.3%
all 67 +6.2% -3.9% 66% 51% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 51% -4.3%
10% -13.1% 42% -13.4%
15% -21.5% 31% -21.8%
20% -29.2% 24% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)67 / 79
History coverage25d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 52¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 65¢ 53¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 77¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 69¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 +$27 +238%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +33%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $116 +$2 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $101 +$23 +23%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$4 -35%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $8 −$1 -14%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $5 +$7 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $166 +$6 +4%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +28%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $5 +$4 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$20 +197%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $1 $0 +27%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 04 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +12%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $17 +$14 +83%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $5 +$9 +180%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $97 −$86 -89%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $80 +$1 +2%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $4 +$5 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $100 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 82¢ $10 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $5 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $5 29h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 93¢ $15 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $5 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $5 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $5 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $5 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 71¢ $30 4d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $10 4d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $5 4d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.47 · official $32.47 (match) · 185 history records