Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ff5…af8e sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$227 (-21%) realized −$228 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$23
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$248
other 20% +$45
world 5% −$5
tech 3% −$24
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -67.8% -70.8% 25% 25% -74.6%
≤90d 15 -3.7% -12.9% 73% 53% -30.8%
all 23 -14.5% -22.6% 70% 39% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 39% -30.8%
10% -30.0% 26% -37.4%
15% -36.8% 13% -43.5%
20% -43.0% 9% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$62 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage178d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 66¢ 66¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $78 +$23 +29%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $56 −$55 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $142 −$140 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $86 −$85 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 19 $83 +$69 +83%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $119 −$118 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 15 $44 +$18 +40%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff May 15 $47 +$44 +93%
Thunder vs. Suns May 15 $76 +$20 +26%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 24 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Apr 24 $9 +$2 +19%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Apr 24 $14 $0 +1%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? Apr 24 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 24 $67 +$21 +31%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $15 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January Feb 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? Feb 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 07 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 66¢ $98 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $56 17d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 67¢ $142 24d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $86 29d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $83 39d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY 9z 62¢ $119 42d
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff BUY Global Esports 51¢ $47 50d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 71¢ $44 59d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 79¢ $76 62d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $67 71d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 92d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $14 99d
Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY No 99¢ $14 105d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $17 115d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? BUY No 84¢ $9 121d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 135d
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026? BUY Yes $5 135d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 136d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 136d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY Yes 12¢ $24 139d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 157d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 157d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January BUY No 100¢ $21 160d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 170d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.84 · official $97.84 (match) · 42 history records