Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ff4…7a3a crypto 1109 markets active 16h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%689W / 420L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$262
14 days−$45
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$201
world 4% +$89
sports 4% +$44
other 4% +$19
politics 1% −$14
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -20.9% -28.4% 63% 63% -37.3%
≤30d 731 +2.6% -7.2% 79% 79% -8.4%
≤90d 797 +1.2% -8.4% 77% 76% -8.6%
all 1109 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 61% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 61% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 48% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 20% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses689 / 420
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1109 / 1109
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1109 Trades
no open positions (314 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $119 −$117 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$6 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $13 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records