Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7ff2…5cca other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+0%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 52L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 66% −$14
other 19% +$12
politics 8% −$7
tech 3% −$1
sports 2% +$111
crypto 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +11.6% +0.9% 25% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 55 +6.6% -3.5% 25% 16% -7.6%
all 69 +5.1% -4.9% 25% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 13% -9.1%
10% -14.0% 13% -17.8%
15% -22.3% 13% -25.7%
20% -29.9% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage605d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $255 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $34 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $8 +$11 +140%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$10 +140%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $164 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $336 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $346 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 23 $162 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $198 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 +$9 +79%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 06 $21 +$2 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $48 $0 +0%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 21h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 22h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 27h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $125 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $31 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 29d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ $8 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 31d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $114 32d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $170 33d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $170 33d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $186 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.15 · official $181.15 (match) · 272 history records