Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7ff2…26d6 politics 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$6
sports 16% −$1
other 12% −$2
world 8% −$2
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 -19.4% -27.1% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 7 -16.6% -24.5% 43% 0% -9.8%
all 52 -9.0% -17.6% 21% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage239d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $114 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $111 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $226 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $347 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 19 $113 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $114 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $114 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $117 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $3 $0 -14%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $117 $0 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? Jan 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $112 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $1 $0 -14%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $237 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $120 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $119 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $117 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $1 $0 -25%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 15 $119 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $1 $0 -33%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $123 $0 -0%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Nov 04 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 0¢ $1 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $110 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $111 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 100¢ $113 27d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $113 111d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 115d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $113 130d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 143d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 144d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 144d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $114 146d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 147d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 149d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 150d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 151d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 152d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 153d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 154d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 154d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.28 · official $110.28 (match) · 201 history records