Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fea…8f74 sports 177 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1376 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$40,175 (+11%) realized +$40,659 · open −$484
Gross ROI / mkt +702% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +493% what you keep after slip
Net edge+493%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%370W / 241L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$2,098per market
Trades / day1376.2pace
Fees−$3,074est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6,158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$92
other 25% +$2,973
crypto 2% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1376 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+625.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 611 +702.2% +625.8% 61% 52% -3.6%
≤30d 611 +702.2% +625.8% 61% 52% -3.6%
≤90d 611 +702.2% +625.8% 61% 52% -3.6%
all 611 +702.2% +625.8% 61% 52% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1376.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +625.8% 52% -3.6%
10% +556.4% 49% -12.8%
15% ← realistic here +492.9% 48% -21.2%
20% +434.8% 48% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +702% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +42% → late +1360% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$416 vs −$291 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6,158
Realized+$40,659
Unrealized−$484
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses370 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$3,074
Open positions14
Markets (closed)611 / 177
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$2,098
Trades / day1376.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Tommy Paul 69¢ 74¢ $1,386 $1,491 +$105 (+8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 48¢ $1,550 $1,353 −$198 (-13%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 70¢ 88¢ $1,009 $1,262 +$253 (+25%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 53¢ $1,012 $1,068 +$56 (+6%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nuno Borges 35¢ 12¢ $507 $172 −$335 (-66%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Yulia Starodubtseva 14¢ 20¢ $56 $77 +$22 (+39%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 46¢ 52¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+12%)
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Kathinka von Deichmann 51¢ 66¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+29%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 64¢ 84¢ $27 $35 +$9 (+32%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Zachary Svajda 28¢ 26¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 53¢ 34¢ $29 $18 −$10 (-36%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Terence Atmane 75¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 36¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Nikola Bartunkova 40¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 58¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Luisina Giovannini 66¢ 55¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 480 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $246 +$13 +5%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 15 $165 +$65 +39%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $1 −$284 -35210%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$231 +38500%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 15 $1 −$234 -28847%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$208 -30045%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1,412 -235654%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Alice Tubello Jun 15 $0 −$370 -77496%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 −$1,588 -406897%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 15 $0 −$652 -213632%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $0 −$35 -9287%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $0 −$566 -165928%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $0 +$353 +233685%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $0 −$653 -176553%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $0 −$39 -11657%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $0 +$2 +994%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 15 $0 −$135 -64507%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 15 $0 −$61 -25488%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1127%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 −$97 -59909%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $0 −$1,228 -575627%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $0 −$168 -84547%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $0 −$1,126 -742582%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $0 −$559 -380784%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $0 −$141 -88332%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $0 −$350 -254941%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $0 −$319 -222000%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $0 −$219 -160055%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $0 −$54 -68524%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 15 $0 −$6 -8594%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $0 +$95 +96530%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $0 −$337 -418242%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $9 +$582 +6152%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $57 +$5,259 +9150%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $1 +$42 +3491%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 15 $1 +$191 +36942%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $2 +$41 +2430%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $0 +$85 +17777%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +67%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $59 +$174 +293%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 +$138 +228571%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $0 +$384 +7686908%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $11 +$252 +2390%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $0 +$70 +1363476%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko Jun 15 $0 +$93 +30707%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $2 −$6 -354%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 15 $754 −$1,027 -136%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $15 −$180 -1219%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colo Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 53¢ $29 1m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 41¢ $166 1m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 28¢ $21 1m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $152 2m
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 60¢ $7 4m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $158 5m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $70 5m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $240 5m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $212 5m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $48 6m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $13 6m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 69¢ $132 6m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 37¢ $151 6m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $284 6m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $22 7m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $94 7m
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Kathinka von Deichmann 48¢ $32 7m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $172 7m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 40¢ $155 7m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 66¢ $29 7m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 49¢ $247 9m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 14¢ $56 10m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $16 11m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $106 11m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $231 12m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $25 12m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 74¢ $298 12m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $102 12m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $106 12m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 48¢ $79 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,158.16 · official $6,139.60 (match) · 3500 history records