Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fe8…06c9 sports 10 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,292 (+12%) realized +$36,655 · open −$28,363
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,122per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1,178est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$31,197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-61.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -57.5% -61.6% 22% 22% -15.6%
≤30d 9 -57.5% -61.6% 22% 22% -15.6%
≤90d 9 -57.5% -61.6% 22% 22% -15.6%
all 9 -57.5% -61.6% 22% 22% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.6% 22% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -65.2% 22% -23.7%
15% -68.6% 22% -31.1%
20% -71.7% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9,592 vs −$3,145 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$36,655
Unrealized−$28,363
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1,178
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7,122
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Indiana Fever 48¢ 0¢ $28,393 $29 −$28,363 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $10,203 −$10,000 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $49 +$42 +86%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 20 $19,878 +$19,142 +96%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $4,868 −$4,762 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $5,080 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,291 −$1,261 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $482 −$471 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $512 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) BUY Indiana Fever 48¢ $28,835 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $10,203 7h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 53¢ $49 26h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $19,675 26h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $203 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $24 29h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $4,868 30h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Indiana Fever 46¢ $5,080 45h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $1,291 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 22¢ $482 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 17¢ $512 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.49 · official $29.49 (match) · 14 history records