Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fe6…b39e world 170 markets active 120d ago coverage 102d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,386 (+1%) realized +$7,386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%132W / 38L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$6,544per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$23,279
tech 25% +$37,806
world 22% −$13,643
politics 15% +$6,754
economics 5% −$1,096
culture 4% −$9,651
sports 0% +$440
crypto 0% +$52
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 170 +1.3% -8.3% 78% 24% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 24% -5.9%
10% -17.1% 11% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 7% -23.2%
20% -32.5% 5% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$6,569) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$1,549 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses132 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$6,544
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Mar 01 $960 −$960 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $2,002 −$2,002 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $5,674 −$5,674 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $4,284 −$3,324 -78%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $3,600 −$2,514 -70%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $13,380 −$9,005 -67%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $4,725 −$388 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 28 $9,940 +$40 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1,770 +$146 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $3,077 −$1,769 -58%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 28 $1,110 +$110 +10%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $33,745 −$1,253 -4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $11,976 −$187 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $15,891 +$389 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $8,528 +$907 +11%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 27 $8,258 +$1,018 +12%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 27 $4,965 −$2 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $1,966 +$32 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 27 $170 +$21 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $4,788 +$285 +6%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $3,644 −$884 -24%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 26 $975 +$15 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $2,387 +$607 +25%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $1,244 +$244 +20%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $6,901 +$461 +7%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $1,500 +$97 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $27,613 +$919 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 23 $870 +$106 +12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 23 $4,120 +$251 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 23 $2,400 +$100 +4%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 23 $2,310 −$720 -31%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 23 $885 +$33 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $2,700 +$300 +11%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $1,860 +$140 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $7,240 +$809 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Feb 20 $832 −$47 -6%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 20 $646 +$145 +22%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $4,776 +$187 +4%
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Feb 19 $10,050 +$310 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $3,000 +$158 +5%
Will Norway win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympic Feb 18 $279 +$20 +7%
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympi Feb 18 $91 −$90 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $1,410 +$58 +4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $2,501 +$241 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $3,266 +$432 +13%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $445 +$22 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $1,940 +$60 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $92 +$8 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 86¢ $874 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 86¢ $832 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 86¢ $26 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $161 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $10 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $113 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $68 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $100 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $65 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $100 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $23 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $44 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $711 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $1,016 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $31 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $72 120d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $91 120d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 100¢ $3,693 120d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,916 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 1¢ $28 120d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1,220 120d
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $156 120d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 95¢ $32,492 120d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 91¢ $4,481 120d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $9,457 121d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $816 121d
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $32 121d
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $21 121d
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $907 121d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $9 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records