Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fdf…48b4 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
other 19% −$1
crypto 6% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% +$4
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 51 -0.8% -10.2% 31% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage492d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $12 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $68 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $46 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 19 $6 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $6 $0 -6%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $6 $0 +7%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 11 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $5 +$2 +30%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 05 $7 $0 +4%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 28? Mar 20 $7 $0 +4%
St. Thomas - Minnesota vs. South Dakota Feb 28 $4 +$3 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $20 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $20 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 23h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $25 23h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $4 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $28 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $34 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $12 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $12 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $21 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $15 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $23 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $33 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $34 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.94 · official $31.96 (match) · 158 history records