Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7fdc…efad sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$823 (-16%) realized −$819 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%38W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$682
other 23% −$154
crypto 4% −$194
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +36.1% +23.2% 38% 38% -0.4%
≤30d 8 +36.1% +23.2% 38% 38% -0.4%
≤90d 8 +36.1% +23.2% 38% 38% -0.4%
all 118 -18.8% -26.5% 32% 31% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 31% -28.3%
10% -33.6% 27% -35.2%
15% -40.0% 24% -41.4%
20% -45.9% 20% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$27 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$819
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses38 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)118 / 125
History coverage263d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 +$41 +442%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 −$3 -3%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $17 −$16 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $68 +$71 +105%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 26 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 26 $10 $0 +5%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jan 26 $200 −$153 -76%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playof Jan 25 $20 −$15 -75%
Penguins vs. Canucks Jan 25 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Senators Jan 25 $201 −$10 -5%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $834 −$547 -66%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $524 +$166 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $26 −$18 -68%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $19 −$16 -84%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-12? Jan 12 $11 +$9 +81%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 10? Jan 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 10 $85 +$50 +59%
Knicks vs. Suns Jan 10 $188 +$63 +34%
Kings vs. Warriors Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $60 +$97 +161%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jan 10 $204 −$12 -6%
76ers vs. Magic Jan 10 $5 −$4 -80%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Jets Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Oct 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Heat Oct 27 $8 +$12 +138%
Pacers vs. Timberwolves Oct 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Saints Oct 26 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? Oct 26 $6 $0 -8%
Will Lazio vs. Juventus end in a draw? Oct 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC end in a draw? Oct 26 $4 +$10 +262%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4PM ET Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Titans vs. Colts Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $20 +$17 +85%
Oilers vs. Kraken Oct 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? Oct 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5 Oct 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-25? Oct 26 $12 +$12 +100%
Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State Oct 26 $22 +$18 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $9 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 4h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $9 5h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $13 5h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $17 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $68 6h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY Yes 2¢ $209 143d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 143d
Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 143d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY Yes 1¢ $47 143d
Warriors vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 13¢ $47 143d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 143d
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playof SELL Sentinels 6¢ $5 143d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY Yes 1¢ $78 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.19 · official $89.19 (match) · 278 history records