Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7fd7…a01f sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,480 (-4%) realized −$1,480 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$998per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,764
7 days−$1,961
14 days−$2,297
30 days−$985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,520
other 21% +$1,293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.1% -17.8% 63% 42% -18.2%
≤30d 31 -6.8% -15.7% 65% 48% -12.3%
≤90d 34 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 50% -12.8%
all 34 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 50% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 50% -12.8%
10% -18.7% 41% -21.1%
15% -26.5% 32% -28.8%
20% -33.7% 24% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,191) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$692 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,480
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage37d
Avg bet$998
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 25 $489 −$489 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,608 +$386 +8%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $460 +$220 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $237 +$513 +216%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $544 +$136 +25%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $297 −$297 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 24 $794 −$794 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $1,759 −$1,759 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $1,191 +$237 +20%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva Jun 23 $447 +$84 +19%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $2,303 +$121 +5%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $1,441 +$359 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $323 +$327 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $940 +$499 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $325 −$325 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,002 +$91 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,059 +$17 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $686 −$686 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $599 −$599 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,386 +$166 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $583 −$583 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $667 −$667 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,691 +$1,209 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $945 −$750 -79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $204 +$177 +87%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,209 +$112 +5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,038 +$512 +49%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $892 +$508 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $289 −$289 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $933 +$579 +62%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $7 +$2 +26%
Derthona Basket vs. Reyer Venezia May 24 $8 +$10 +127%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $499 +$813 +163%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,066 −$1,066 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $3,396 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $1,174 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $1,854 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 94¢ $1,598 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 93¢ $1,581 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $460 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 31¢ $237 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 80¢ $544 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Xiyu Wang 81¢ $489 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 83¢ $1,191 9h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $297 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $35 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $132 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $88 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $132 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $88 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $35 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $132 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $172 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $88 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $88 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $97 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $35 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $18 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $88 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $88 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $18 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $416 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 88¢ $8 13h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 85¢ $14 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records