Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7F 0x7fd7…5861 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$244 (+0%) realized +$310 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%182W / 4L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,066per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$68
14 days+$206
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$204
other 0% −$38
politics 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 92 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 186 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$9,876) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$442 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$10,581
Realized+$310
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses182 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)186 / 199
History coverage166d
Avg bet$7,066
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5,024 $5,027 +$3 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,003 +$3 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+67%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $50 $17 −$33 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10,016 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,003 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $8,996 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $9,994 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9,985 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $9,976 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $9,967 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $9,957 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $9,948 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7,902 +$24 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,019 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $9,913 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4,831 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5,005 +$71 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $9,828 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $9,819 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9,810 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $9,801 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $9,792 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $9,783 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $9,742 +$27 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $9,797 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $9,788 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $9,138 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 25 $10,120 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $10,210 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $10,200 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $10,191 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $10,181 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $10,171 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 19 $10,162 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $10,141 +$19 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $10,133 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $10,124 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $10,114 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $10,102 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? May 13 $10,092 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $10,083 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $10,071 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $10,062 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 09 $10,052 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? May 08 $10,043 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $10,033 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $10,024 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $10,014 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $10,005 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $9,996 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 02 $9,987 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1? May 01 $9,977 +$9 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,025 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,000 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10,016 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,003 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $8,996 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,994 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,985 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,976 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,967 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,957 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9,948 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2,019 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,901 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,001 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $9,913 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $4,831 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $5,005 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $9,828 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $9,819 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $9,810 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $9,801 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $9,792 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,783 19d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $9,742 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9,797 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $9,788 22d
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 22d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,581.40 · official $10,581.43 (match) · 598 history records