Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7F 0x7fd5…b12a crypto 1009 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,463 (-5%) realized −$3,481 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%452W / 556L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$5,924
sports 16% +$433
other 2% −$859
world 0% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -30.7% -37.3% 44% 39% -37.8%
≤30d 32 -17.0% -24.9% 56% 44% -34.1%
≤90d 575 -22.6% -30.0% 42% 35% -23.6%
all 1008 -17.9% -25.7% 45% 37% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 37% -19.4%
10% -32.8% 31% -27.1%
15% -39.3% 25% -34.2%
20% -45.3% 20% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$3,481
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses452 / 556
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1008 / 1009
History coverage117d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1008 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $38 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$8 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 29 $104 −$27 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 05 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $61 −$55 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $17 +$18 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 29 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 28 $34 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 28 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 28 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 28 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 28 $23 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 28 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 28 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $37 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $40 +$7 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $12 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $34 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 24h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $77 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.41 · official $118.41 (match) · 2449 history records