Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7fd4…5026
world · 86 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$149
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses21 / 61
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)82 / 86
History coverage283d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 4 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 81¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1971%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 87¢ 81¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $120 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $164 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $163 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $39 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $320 −$4 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $165 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $65 +$2 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $338 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $181 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $341 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $168 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $47 −$5 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $158 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $508 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $732 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $166 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $176 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $180 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $158 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $158 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $206 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 16 $471 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $725 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $316 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $155 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $171 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $155 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $316 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $162 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $158 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $174 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% −$5
politics 23% −$1
sports 20% +$4
other 17% −$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $148 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $161 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $164 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $164 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $164 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $159 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $159 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 62 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 82 +0.2% -9.4% 26% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.34 · official $147.19 · 386 history records