Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7fd2…6d68 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$171 (+3%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%38W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days+$354
14 days+$360
30 days+$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$371
sports 20% −$107
world 4% +$76
tech 0% +$6
crypto 0% −$10
economics 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 51% -4.5%
≤30d 52 -3.8% -12.9% 62% 52% -4.5%
≤90d 55 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 49% -4.9%
all 62 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 50% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -4.8%
10% -22.7% 29% -13.9%
15% -30.2% 21% -22.2%
20% -37.0% 13% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses38 / 24
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage224d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $208 +$154 +74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $436 +$40 +9%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $40 −$2 -6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $300 +$15 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -91%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$7 -55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $400 +$10 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $186 +$30 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $473 +$104 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $392 +$62 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $301 +$59 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$154 -76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $279 −$96 -34%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $500 +$9 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $302 −$291 -96%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $327 +$68 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $332 +$60 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $212 +$93 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $212 +$55 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $151 +$22 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$98 +64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$63 -63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$7 -27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +102%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $357 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $472 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 91¢ $431 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 49¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 61¢ $4 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $5 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 73¢ $5 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $30 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $315 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $300 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $9 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $202 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $200 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 166 history records