Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fd0…e4c5 world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 23% −$6
sports 17% −$4
politics 11% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 63 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 3% -9.5%
all 69 -8.5% -17.3% 30% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage529d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $81 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $17 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $15 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $59 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $1 $0 +12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $167 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $4 $0 +4%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $2 $0 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.19 · official $37.92 (match) · 275 history records