Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7fd0…22c8 weather 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+22%) realized +$62 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$30
other 15% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 39% +14.1%
≤30d 28 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 39% +14.1%
≤90d 28 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 39% +14.1%
all 28 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 39% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 39% +14.1%
10% -13.0% 39% +3.2%
15% -21.4% 36% -6.8%
20% -29.1% 32% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)28 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $21 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? Yes 40¢ 27¢ $26 $18 −$9 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 27? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 +$35 +184%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 −$5 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $7 +$13 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 +$22 +162%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$11 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 +$8 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$7 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$11 +212%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots Jun 23 $4 +$5 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2 +$3 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +319%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 40¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27? BUY Yes $2 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes $3 15h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $2 15h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 15h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.58 · official $60.58 (match) · 73 history records