trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 28 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 39% | 39% | +14.1% |
| ≤30d | 28 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 39% | 39% | +14.1% |
| ≤90d | 28 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 39% | 39% | +14.1% |
| all | 28 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 39% | 39% | +14.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.8% | 39% | +14.1% |
| 10% | -13.0% | 39% | +3.2% |
| 15% | -21.4% | 36% | -6.8% |
| 20% | -29.1% | 32% | -16.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? | Yes | 30¢ | 32¢ | $21 | $22 | +$2 (+8%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? | Yes | 40¢ | 27¢ | $26 | $18 | −$9 (-32%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? | Yes | 35¢ | 38¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | $6 | $7 | +$1 (+17%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | $3 | $4 | +$1 (+18%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 27? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+18%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? | Jun 27 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26? | Jun 26 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? | Jun 26 | $19 | +$35 | +184% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | Jun 26 | $7 | −$4 | -57% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? | Jun 26 | $11 | −$5 | -50% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? | Jun 26 | $6 | +$1 | +23% |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? | Jun 26 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? | Jun 26 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? | Jun 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? | Jun 25 | $7 | +$13 | +177% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? | Jun 25 | $13 | +$22 | +162% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? | Jun 25 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? | Jun 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? | Jun 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24? | Jun 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? | Jun 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? | Jun 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? | Jun 24 | $9 | +$11 | +121% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? | Jun 24 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23? | Jun 24 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $17 | +$8 | +50% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? | Jun 23 | $3 | +$7 | +202% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? | Jun 23 | $5 | +$11 | +212% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | Jun 23 | $4 | +$5 | +129% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? | Jun 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | Jun 23 | $2 | +$3 | +206% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $5 | +$17 | +319% |