Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7fd0…19f2 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$179 (+1%) realized +$174 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%58W / 1L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$74
world 18% +$26
finance 13% +$10
other 4% +$33
economics 4% +$5
politics 3% −$10
tech 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.3% +3.4% 100% 100% +3.4%
≤30d 6 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 17% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 7% -9.0%
all 59 +1.1% -8.6% 98% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×14.3 per $1 lost it wins $14.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$1,635
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses58 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage262d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,394 $1,397 +$2 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $236 $239 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $207 +$30 +14%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 07 $207 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $1,048 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 28 $546 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $1,046 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $545 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $1,586 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 21 $499 +$3 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $394 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 06 $1,182 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 24 $1,924 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 13 $1,223 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $2,419 +$19 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 30 $321 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 24 $318 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 13 $1,543 +$6 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 11 $515 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $1,026 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $541 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 03 $540 +$1 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 26 $522 +$18 +4%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 05 $534 −$12 -2%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 14 $523 +$11 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 30 $517 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $514 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $509 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $461 +$16 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 19? Nov 19 $489 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 17? Nov 16 $487 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 15 $483 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $482 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 November 3-9? Nov 10 $202 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 November 3-9? Nov 10 $279 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 08 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on November 7? Nov 08 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 05 $191 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 2? Nov 03 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 30? Nov 01 $191 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 28 $189 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on October 24? Oct 24 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 23? Oct 23 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.80 on October 22? Oct 23 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 21? Oct 22 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on October 20? Oct 20 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on October 19? Oct 19 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $2.00 on October 18? Oct 19 $187 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $237 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $237 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,394 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $823 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $513 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $207 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $104 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $104 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $207 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,389 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $546 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $86 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $962 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $546 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $545 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $545 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $545 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $545 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $305 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $142 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 33d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $415 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,635.40 · official $1,635.40 (match) · 180 history records