Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fce…af87 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$110 (-12%) realized −$114 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$69
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$94
sports 2% −$20
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.4% -24.3% 60% 53% -22.5%
≤30d 16 -21.6% -29.1% 56% 50% -29.8%
≤90d 16 -21.6% -29.1% 56% 50% -29.8%
all 16 -21.6% -29.1% 56% 50% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 50% -29.8%
10% -35.9% 50% -36.5%
15% -42.1% 31% -42.7%
20% -47.7% 6% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$34 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 26
History coverage8d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $65 $72 +$7 (+10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $31 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $67 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 20¢ $15 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 10¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.46 · official $294.46 (match) · 43 history records