Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7F 0x7fca…ac29 crypto 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (244 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,376 (-4%) realized −$2,441 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate89%205W / 25L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day244.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,039
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (244 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +2.2% -7.5% 95% 8% -6.5%
≤30d 230 +41.9% +28.4% 89% 24% -4.5%
≤90d 230 +41.9% +28.4% 89% 24% -4.5%
all 230 +41.9% +28.4% 89% 24% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover244.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.4% 24% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here +16.1% 17% -13.7%
15% +4.9% 13% -22.0%
20% -5.4% 9% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +81% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$63 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5,797
Realized−$2,441
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses205 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions37
Markets (closed)230 / 267
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$225
Trades / day244.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $671 $688 +$17 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? No 97¢ 97¢ $634 $635 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $621 $623 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $609 $615 +$6 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? No 96¢ 96¢ $599 $602 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $487 $498 +$11 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $362 $373 +$11 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $244 $245 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $154 $155 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $83 $86 +$3 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 98¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? No 97¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? No 95¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $607 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $541 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $719 +$31 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $650 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $669 +$37 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $213 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $588 −$52 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $594 +$11 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $156 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $47 +$8 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $399 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $592 +$19 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $603 +$32 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $617 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $605 +$25 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $605 +$23 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $633 +$38 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $296 +$20 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $418 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $590 +$29 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $132 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $307 +$18 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $632 +$30 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $19 +$6 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $260 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $571 +$29 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $69 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $163 +$22 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $655 +$23 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $463 +$28 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $673 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $710 +$23 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $371 +$15 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $120 +$14 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 34m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $53 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $24 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $612 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $34 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $52 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $6 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $11 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $24 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,796.75 · official $5,797.39 (match) · 3500 history records