Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fc6…3b24 other 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$38
sports 21% −$14
culture 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
politics 6% −$6
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 48 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage128d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $887 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $156 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $294 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $207 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 29 $121 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $319 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 27 $247 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $126 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $146 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 25 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $388 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $63 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 23 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 22 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $359 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $357 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 11h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 12h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 14h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 20h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 22h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $57 26h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $58 14d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 15d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 15d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 15d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 15d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 15d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 15d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 15d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 15d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 15d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 15d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 15d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 15d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 16d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 16d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 16d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 16d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 16d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 16d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.88 · official $56.88 (match) · 1169 history records