Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7fc5…a334 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+6%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$200
other 7% $0
tech 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +6.0% -4.1% 72% 56% +0.9%
≤30d 39 +6.0% -4.1% 72% 56% +0.9%
≤90d 39 +6.0% -4.1% 72% 56% +0.9%
all 39 +6.0% -4.1% 72% 56% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 56% +0.9%
10% -13.3% 46% -8.8%
15% -21.6% 33% -17.6%
20% -29.3% 18% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $61 +$52 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$90 +225%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $99 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $115 +$34 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $32 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $99 −$94 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $34 −$26 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$38 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$3 +40%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 29 $99 −$2 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $55 +$3 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $140 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $112 +$33 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $90 +$14 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $97 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $99 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records