Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fc0…7bf6 crypto 950 markets active 4h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,617 (+9%) realized +$1,622 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%456W / 726L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day95.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$149
weather 12% +$272
sports 6% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 409 -41.8% -47.3% 19% 19% -67.6%
≤30d 801 -20.6% -28.1% 34% 32% -33.2%
≤90d 1182 -13.6% -21.8% 39% 36% -24.6%
all 1182 -13.6% -21.8% 39% 36% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 36% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 32% -31.8%
15% -36.1% 30% -38.4%
20% -42.4% 26% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$1,622
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses456 / 726
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1182 / 950
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day95.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $7 $30 +$23 (+335%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 57¢ 48¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 45¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 50¢ 36¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 35¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$12 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$7 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$10 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$26 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +3125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$17 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$14 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$5 -439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$22 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -526%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 19h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Kiwoom Heroes 27¢ $14 20h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 46¢ $23 20h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 69¢ $69 20h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 41¢ $21 20h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $52 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $17 37h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 38h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 32¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 39h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.03 · official $154.03 (match) · 3500 history records