Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7fbd…2a3f sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-2%) realized −$63 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%33W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$130
14 days+$210
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$66
other 38% $0
crypto 1% −$56
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.3% -0.2% 83% 83% +12.4%
≤30d 15 +6.9% -3.3% 80% 67% +10.2%
≤90d 33 -4.9% -14.0% 73% 45% -5.7%
all 51 -13.8% -22.0% 65% 39% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 39% -9.2%
10% -29.5% 24% -17.9%
15% -36.3% 12% -25.8%
20% -42.5% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$29 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses33 / 18
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage155d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 78¢ $254 $246 −$8 (-3%)
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots Yes 88¢ 84¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Michael Olise: 1+ shots Jun 26 $39 +$11 +27%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $182 +$72 +40%
Yan Diomandé: 2+ shots Jun 25 $19 −$18 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $146 +$35 +24%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $140 +$25 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jun 23 $10 +$5 +53%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $111 +$20 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will B Jun 20 $14 +$3 +24%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia Jun 19 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $128 +$2 +1%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $21 +$19 +91%
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $56 +$42 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $121 −$120 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 25 $107 +$14 +13%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 May 24 $85 +$22 +26%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 23 $99 −$14 -14%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 23 $66 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $6 −$5 -97%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 20 $200 −$7 -4%
Lee Kang-in: Anytime Goalscorer May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Federico Valverde: Anytime Goalscorer May 12 $199 $0 +0%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 May 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $102 +$57 +56%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $110 +$32 +29%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $110 +$5 +4%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 17 $25 $0 +2%
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5 Apr 10 $79 +$9 +12%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami O Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 14 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Feb 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Feb 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Mariano Navone Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $138 +$17 +12%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $110 −$73 -66%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 Feb 09 $101 +$15 +15%
Thunder vs. Spurs Feb 05 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Feb 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $100 −$20 -20%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $103 +$61 +59%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 Jan 25 $105 +$9 +9%
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $256 1h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots BUY Yes 88¢ $27 1h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots AND Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots BUY 76¢ $9 8h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $182 27h
Michael Olise: 1+ shots BUY Yes 78¢ $39 36h
Yan Diomandé: 2+ shots BUY Yes 61¢ $19 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 80¢ $146 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY 73¢ $18 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 84¢ $140 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will B BUY 80¢ $14 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 84¢ $111 8d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia BUY 78¢ $11 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 65¢ $10 8d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $2 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 11d
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 98¢ $98 11d
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 55¢ $56 11d
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $77 11d
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 11d
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 11d
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 52¢ $11 12d
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 51¢ $10 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 30¢ $10 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Gael Monfils 55¢ $121 33d
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $107 34d
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $85 35d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? SELL Yes 74¢ $85 35d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 85¢ $61 35d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.32 · official $282.27 · 117 history records