Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7fbc…8a45
crypto · 914 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$271 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$260 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses316 / 579
Open positions7
Markets (closed)895 / 914
History coverage39d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 895 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$22
14 days−$51
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 61¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-42%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+106%)
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Up 57¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Down 68¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? No 19¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$248
finance 3% +$34
politics 3% −$44
world 0% −$7
economics 0% −$1
other 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 68¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 59¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -35.8% -41.9% 32% 32% -26.6%
≤30d 710 -24.9% -32.0% 35% 33% -23.5%
≤90d 895 -24.1% -31.3% 35% 33% -22.4%
all 895 -24.1% -31.3% 35% 33% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 33% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.9% 31% -29.8%
15% -43.9% 28% -36.6%
20% -49.4% 22% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.15 · official $58.15 (match) · 2089 history records