trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 43¢ | 42¢ | $33 | $33 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $7 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $56 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $33 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 06 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | Apr 06 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 06 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 04 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 01 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? | Mar 31 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 30 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 25 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 25 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Mar 24 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 23 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 21 | $14 | +$4 | +27% |
| Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Mar 02 | $15 | −$2 | -11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 17% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 17% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 17% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 23 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 39% | 4% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.8% | 4% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 4% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.5% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 0% | -33.1% |