Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fb1…b81d other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$430 (-30%) realized −$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$51
14 days−$188
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$202
sports 29% −$120
crypto 23% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 67% -32.6%
≤30d 54 -15.6% -23.6% 43% 35% -37.7%
≤90d 54 -15.6% -23.6% 43% 35% -37.7%
all 60 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 33% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 33% -37.5%
10% -32.2% 20% -43.5%
15% -38.8% 13% -49.0%
20% -44.8% 12% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage106d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$22 +44%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$26 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 +$11 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $29 +$6 +20%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $39 −$20 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +649%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $18 +$12 +64%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$8 -14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $161 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +543%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 88¢ $73 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 20h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $50 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 9d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 86¢ $46 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $35 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 68¢ $35 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 12d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 16¢ $11 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $9 12d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 12d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 12d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $39 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records