Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fb0…eeb7 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
politics 20% $0
other 17% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -2.1% -11.4% 40% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage273d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $44 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $6 $0 +4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $105 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3 −$1 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $85 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $20 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 11 $2 $0 -18%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $1 $0 -9%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $4 $0 -5%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 -8%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $45 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $44 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $7 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $7 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $6 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $42 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $46 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $46 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $43 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $5.17 (match) · 125 history records