Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7faf…e2b5 sports 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$487 (-5%) realized −$507 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +108% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%140W / 258L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day56.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,052
7 days−$1,309
14 days−$1,262
30 days−$832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$551
sports 35% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+88.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 +65.6% +49.8% 25% 22% -57.3%
≤30d 343 +85.9% +68.2% 31% 24% -22.6%
≤90d 398 +108.2% +88.4% 35% 27% -19.6%
all 398 +108.2% +88.4% 35% 27% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +88.4% 27% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here +70.4% 24% -27.3%
15% +53.9% 22% -34.3%
20% +38.8% 20% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +108% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late +115% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$507
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses140 / 258
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions14
Markets (closed)398 / 188
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 60¢ 94¢ $35 $55 +$20 (+56%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 89¢ 100¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Marco Cecchinato 35¢ 100¢ $13 $36 +$23 (+183%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Chun-Hsin Tseng 81¢ 70¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-13%)
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Ryo Tabata 27¢ 19¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Miguel Damas 35¢ 33¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Ignacio Buse 24¢ 20¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 26¢ 50¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+92%)
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Shuai Zhang 13¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Conor Gannon 11¢ 12¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Tallon Griekspoor 33¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 20¢ 23¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets McCartney Kessler 33¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 316 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ventforet Kōfu vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -54%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$8 -165%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-04-23? Jun 16 $0 +$22 +6986%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Will FC Fredericia vs. Vejle BK end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will CA Lanús vs. Club Always Ready end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary end in a d Jun 16 $0 −$2 -952%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-13? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. AZ end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Columbus Crew vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +1804%
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Querétaro FC vs. CF América end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +204%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-03-17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will East Bengal FC win on 2026-04-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vejle BK win on 2026-04-13? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CF América vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +221%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $6 −$12 -192%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-23? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1341%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Miguel Damas 37¢ $1 0m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 51¢ $1 2m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 93¢ $5 3m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 33¢ $1 4m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 92¢ $8 5m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 90¢ $4 6m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 89¢ $3 8m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 89¢ $4 8m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 20¢ $1 11m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 26¢ $1 12m
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Miguel Damas 34¢ $19 14m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 19¢ $1 15m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 20¢ $1 16m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 23¢ $1 18m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 57¢ $1 18m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 60¢ $2 19m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 64¢ $2 19m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 67¢ $1 25m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 61¢ $1 27m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 33¢ $1 32m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 81¢ $2 34m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 70¢ $1 34m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 80¢ $2 35m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 69¢ $2 37m
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Shuai Zhang 8¢ $1 37m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 69¢ $2 39m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $1 39m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 15¢ $1 41m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 63¢ $1 41m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 65¢ $1 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.21 · official $232.21 (match) · 3500 history records