Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7F 0x7fae…0913 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-10%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -44.5% -49.8% 25% 25% -41.3%
≤30d 16 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 50% -10.2%
≤90d 18 -10.0% -18.6% 56% 50% -11.2%
all 33 -16.4% -24.4% 48% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 42% -19.2%
10% -31.6% 36% -26.9%
15% -38.2% 27% -34.0%
20% -44.3% 24% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage155d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 01 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 02 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 20 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 20 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 20 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 06 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 23 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 20 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 20 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 12 $1 +$1 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $6 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $7 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records