Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa8…3341 crypto 337 markets active 2d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%197W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -5.3% -14.4% 58% 53% -9.8%
≤30d 314 -7.1% -15.9% 61% 57% -11.9%
≤90d 337 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 54% -13.0%
all 337 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 54% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 54% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 24% -21.3%
15% -32.5% 19% -28.9%
20% -39.1% 14% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses197 / 140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)337 / 337
History coverage37d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 337 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 819 history records