Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa6…16f9 culture 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable culture specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27,054 (+15%) realized +$26,969 · open +$85
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate84%257W / 50L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$563per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 71% +$10,513
other 14% +$274
sports 8% +$36
politics 5% +$93
world 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 35% -11.2%
≤30d 76 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 22% -9.3%
≤90d 237 +3.8% -6.1% 84% 19% -11.9%
all 307 +13.8% +3.0% 84% 23% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 23% -4.5%
10% -6.9% 17% -13.7%
15% ← realistic here -15.9% 14% -22.0%
20% -24.1% 11% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$283 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,102
Realized+$26,969
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses257 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions8
Markets (closed)307 / 315
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$563
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 30 $153 −$153 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the best domestic opening weeke Jun 29 $1 +$2 +166%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $56 +$16 +29%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 27 $30 $0 +2%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 27 $137 +$5 +4%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10 Jun 25 $15 +$9 +58%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m Jun 25 $3 $0 +10%
Will "The Invite" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer Jun 24 $55 +$5 +8%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? Jun 24 $154 +$4 +2%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $14 +$6 +42%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 24 $492 +$78 +16%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 70m? Jun 23 $446 +$20 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Pete Alonso: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$37 +354%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 21 $216 +$2 +1%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 20 $333 +$1 +0%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $69 −$32 -46%
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $49 +$9 +17%
Will "May" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $162 +$9 +6%
Will "School" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $688 +$10 +2%
Will "Frank" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $74 +$12 +16%
Will "Sorry" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $67 +$17 +25%
Will "MJ" be said 2+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $43 +$3 +7%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Jun 15 $86 +$5 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $328 +$3 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$21 +104%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $26 −$2 -9%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 14 $44 +$2 +4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 14 $41 +$50 +123%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$72 +238%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $39 +$12 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $417 +$87 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $12 30m
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9 BUY No 93¢ $19 1h
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9 BUY No 97¢ $34 1h
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9 BUY No 95¢ $18 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 87¢ $45 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 86¢ $48 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater SELL No 95¢ $11 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $66 3h
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $7 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $87 5h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater SELL No 94¢ $40 6h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater SELL No 91¢ $48 7h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater SELL No 91¢ $78 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 29h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 90¢ $8 36h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 90¢ $27 38h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 90¢ $54 38h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes $0 46h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 92¢ $46 46h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 85¢ $42 46h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 84¢ $41 47h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between SELL No 83¢ $39 47h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between SELL No 85¢ $4 47h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 85¢ $4 47h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 74¢ $4 47h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 73¢ $4 47h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 73¢ $4 47h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 75¢ $4 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,101.73 · official $1,101.52 (match) · 3500 history records