Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

7F 0x7fa5…3689 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$134 (-6%) realized −$134 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate37%7W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$117per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit63%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-26.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-19.0%	-26.7%	37%	32%	-5.0%
≤30d	19	-19.0%	-26.7%	37%	32%	-5.0%
≤90d	19	-19.0%	-26.7%	37%	32%	-5.0%
all	19	-19.0%	-26.7%	37%	32%	-5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.7%	32%	-5.0%
10%	-33.7%	21%	-14.1%
15%	-40.1%	21%	-22.4%
20%	-46.0%	16%	-30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late -25% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$84 vs −$40 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.24 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$134

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)37%

Wins / losses7 / 12

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage5d

Avg bet$117

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 17	$309	+$59	+19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$101	+$6	+6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$395	+$144	+36%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$103	−$5	-5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$331	+$69	+21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$70	−$50	-72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$4	-84%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$31	−$15	-50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$103	−$19	-19%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	+$46	+90%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$123	+$163	+133%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$254	−$250	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$204	−$104	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$3	-59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 12	$26	−$7	-27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$102	+$102	+100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$142	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$102	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$107	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$103	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$9	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Up	64¢	$109	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	39m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	82¢	$0	51m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	81¢	$106	51m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	76¢	$101	54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$539	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$395	2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	14¢	$97	2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	81¢	$401	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$331	2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	5¢	$19	7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Up	7¢	$1	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	9¢	$0	24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	9¢	$15	24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY No	15¢	$10	30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	12¢	$83	31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	80¢	$4	33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	79¢	$93	33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records