Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa3…7d0d sports 64 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (318 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-5%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day317.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$29
weather 15% −$28
other 5% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (318 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 34% -15.4%
≤30d 64 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 27% -16.0%
≤90d 64 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 27% -16.0%
all 64 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 27% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover317.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 27% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 20% -24.1%
15% -36.4% 11% -31.4%
20% -42.7% 5% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day317.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $139 −$40 -29%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $12 −$3 -26%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $48 +$13 +28%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $7 −$3 -44%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $32 +$1 +5%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -20%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $24 −$6 -23%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $12 +$4 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $76 −$42 -55%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $17 −$4 -23%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $15 −$11 -74%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $27 +$5 +19%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $5 −$4 -82%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $7 +$6 +78%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $12 −$6 -48%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $13 +$2 +17%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $12 +$4 +37%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $40 +$29 +72%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $2 −$1 -80%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $9 +$2 +27%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $16 +$8 +46%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $29 +$10 +35%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $48 −$6 -12%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $18 −$8 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 −$1 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 38¢ $9 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 43¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 43¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 37¢ $20 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nicolas Kicker 62¢ $13 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 32¢ $1 5d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $4 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 34¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 24¢ $3 5d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $4 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 34¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 34¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 19¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 16¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 16¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 15¢ $4 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 87¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 87¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $2 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 18¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $2.04 (match) · 897 history records