Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa2…e23a weather 350 markets active 7h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$204 (-2%) realized −$206 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate88%306W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$13
14 days−$4
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$167
sports 6% −$53
other 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$11
culture 0% +$3
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 88 -0.8% -10.2% 94% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 246 -0.9% -10.3% 94% 8% -11.2%
all 348 -1.9% -11.3% 88% 23% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 23% -11.6%
10% -19.8% 8% -20.1%
15% -27.5% 5% -27.8%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses306 / 42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)348 / 350
History coverage549d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $31 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $29 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? Jun 04 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $49 −$45 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $46 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $27 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $25 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $27 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $25 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $26 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $26 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $25 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $25 40h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $25 40h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $50 40h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $24 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $24 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $47 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $46 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $22 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $54.86 (match) · 701 history records