Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7fa1…deeb sports 1567 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,524 (+92%) realized +$3,542 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%675W / 783L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$29
other 26% +$236
weather 17% +$31
politics 8% +$172
culture 4% +$46
tech 3% +$3
crypto 1% +$71
world 1% +$10
finance 1% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 356 +14.7% +3.8% 46% 46% -0.7%
≤30d 1238 +12.4% +1.7% 43% 42% -1.5%
≤90d 1458 +23.8% +12.0% 46% 44% +3.4%
all 1458 +23.8% +12.0% 46% 44% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 44% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 41% -6.5%
15% -8.5% 38% -15.5%
20% -17.5% 33% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized+$3,542
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses675 / 783
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions127
Markets (closed)1458 / 1567
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 127 History 1458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No 75¢ 82¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+10%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-24%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? Yes 41¢ 60¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue? Yes 17¢ 99¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+481%)
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 22¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+221%)
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? No 21¢ 32¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? No 21¢ 26¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+26%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-39%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Solary 45¢ 42¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 48¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+62%)
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? No 66¢ 93¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 50¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+92%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 50¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+65%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 24¢ 15¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Yes 48¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+70%)
Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 51¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+76%)
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow Arias/Poljak 40¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+61%)
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 20¢ 14¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 73¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy - Map 1 Winne Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy - Map 2 Winne Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$7 +712%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +197%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +49%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $3 +$5 +180%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Leicestershire Foxes vs Kent Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$7 +650%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +174%
AA Ponte Preta leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $2 +$6 +388%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +90%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +87%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +74%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +60%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $3 41m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $3 49m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $2 56m
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 9¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $2 1h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 43¢ $4 1h
Set 2 Winner: Zandschulp vs Wendelken BUY Wendelken 34¢ $3 1h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 1h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 47¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Grey Trac 10¢ $1 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi BUY Malawi 19¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY Young Ninjas 42¢ $3 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 2h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Omnix (BO3) - B BUY Omnix 44¢ $3 2h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R BUY Dark Phoenix 50¢ $4 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $2 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 54¢ $4 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 3h
Will Donald Trump's tie be red? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 8h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Kiger/Stalder vs Ho/Reyes BUY Ho/Reyes 44¢ $3 14h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Peter Buldorini 13¢ $2 15h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 12¢ $1 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 15h
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow BUY Arias/Poljak 40¢ $3 16h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 26¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 14¢ $2 17h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.18 · official $414.11 (match) · 3500 history records