Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f9e…557b
world · 38 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$91 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$93 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage547d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 2 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 −$1 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $77 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $21 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $103 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $53 −$4 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $85 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $45 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $2 $0 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $510 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $14 +$1 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 06 $2 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 30 $9 $0 +4%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 24 $181 $0 +0%
Will "The Last Ranger" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $67 +$114 +170%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 04 $48 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 12 $82 −$15 -18%
Thunder vs. Heat Dec 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% +$2
other 22% $0
sports 6% −$23
politics 4% +$114
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $41 38h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $8 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $32 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $15 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $16 45h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $18 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $21 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $29 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $9 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $8 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $31 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.5% 35% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 23 -0.6% -10.0% 35% 0% -9.4%
all 36 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 3% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -4.6%
10% -19.2% 3% -13.7%
15% -27.0% 3% -22.0%
20% -34.2% 3% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records