Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f9e…f389 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$3
world 22% +$1
politics 17% +$7
sports 15% −$3
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 23% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +3.9% -6.0% 29% 14% -7.3%
all 62 +0.6% -9.0% 23% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage270d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $19 +$3 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 24 $14 −$3 -23%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 13 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $16 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 31 $6 $0 +4%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Oct 18 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $9 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $9 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $37 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $43 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $43 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $43 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $43 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $26 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $6 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $20 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.27 · official $39.48 (match) · 354 history records