Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f9e…3a0e
world · 205 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$601,074 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$470,769 · open +$107,023
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$701,511
Realized+$470,769
Unrealized+$107,023
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses130 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$3,161
Open positions23
Markets (closed)182 / 205
History coverage141d
Avg bet$14,994
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 23 History 182 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$1,165
14 days−$9,230
30 days−$67,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 81¢ $411,863 $487,909 +$76,047 (+18%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 79¢ 96¢ $56,855 $69,603 +$12,748 (+22%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 69¢ 87¢ $39,257 $49,162 +$9,905 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17,044 $17,075 +$31 (+0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 88¢ 93¢ $10,522 $11,169 +$648 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 77¢ 80¢ $9,896 $10,328 +$432 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? No 88¢ 99¢ $6,462 $7,243 +$781 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,300 $5,150 −$150 (-3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 84¢ 95¢ $4,428 $4,990 +$562 (+13%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 87¢ 94¢ $4,240 $4,572 +$332 (+8%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $4,060 $4,362 +$302 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3,864 $4,194 +$330 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 87¢ 99¢ $3,588 $4,078 +$489 (+14%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 65¢ 78¢ $2,970 $3,559 +$589 (+20%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 51¢ 66¢ $2,400 $3,073 +$673 (+28%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 79¢ 98¢ $2,417 $2,996 +$579 (+24%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 35¢ 57¢ $1,800 $2,995 +$1,195 (+66%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 61¢ 75¢ $2,039 $2,490 +$451 (+22%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 85¢ 98¢ $2,125 $2,451 +$325 (+15%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 38¢ 59¢ $1,511 $2,342 +$832 (+55%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $850 −$150 (-15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 78¢ 90¢ $452 $523 +$71 (+16%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $397 $398 +$1 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? No 83¢ 0¢ $53,218 $0 −$53,218 (-100%)
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $6,016 +$1,359 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $10,281 +$1,047 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $11,596 +$2,458 +21%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus Jun 11 $2,256 −$87 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,305 −$4,279 -99%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 11 $5,627 −$178 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $929 +$39 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $13,944 +$2,145 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $12,411 +$4,255 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3,292 +$534 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6,441 −$6,379 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -80%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,763 +$253 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 03 $2,490 −$2,490 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $8,966 −$8,966 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 02 $165 −$165 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $46,052 +$768 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2,381 +$432 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $86 +$26 +30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $6,288 −$6,217 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $5,758 −$5,721 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $2,187 −$1,924 -88%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $3,241 −$3,210 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $4,015 −$3,937 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 25 $3,500 +$780 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $1,145 −$1,145 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $450 −$450 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $3,222 −$3,222 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $2,041 −$2,041 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 25 $11,062 +$2,458 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $4,245 +$1,098 +26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,619 +$305 +19%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $971 +$48 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $3,136 +$202 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $8,574 −$8,406 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $12,873 −$12,713 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,547 +$143 +9%
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? May 22 $1,399 +$252 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 21 $17,170 +$365 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 20 $19,618 +$655 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 20 $22,750 +$426 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $17,216 −$15,896 -92%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $201 +$13 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $198 +$15 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $191 +$8 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 08 $908 −$717 -79%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $4,879 +$452 +9%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,694 +$234 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $3,575 +$427 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $53,586 −$53,218 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$475,264
finance 15% −$18,977
sports 10% +$134,658
other 2% −$14,894
politics 1% +$1,424
crypto 0% +$351
culture 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $820 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 67¢ $23 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $381 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $16 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $336 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 65¢ $25 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1,604 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $14 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $44 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $83 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $52 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 61¢ $8 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $37 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $113 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $80 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,193 6h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1,625 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $161 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1,672 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $68 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $211 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 57¢ $249 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $3,046 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $626 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL No 100¢ $626 12h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $190 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $88 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $18 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $82 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $34 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -11.4% -19.8% 62% 46% -8.2%
≤30d 44 -32.3% -38.7% 55% 30% -30.3%
≤90d 150 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 36% +1.6%
all 182 -2.7% -12.0% 71% 33% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 33% +8.9%
10% -20.4% 16% -1.5%
15% ← realistic here -28.1% 9% -11.0%
20% -35.1% 5% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701,511.32 · official $701,571.73 (match) · 3500 history records