Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7f9d…9f4f crypto 1270 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (311 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$699 (-16%) realized −$699 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%760W / 672L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day310.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$586
7 days−$669
14 days−$711
30 days−$711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$134
other 15% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (311 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1084 -27.6% -34.5% 40% 39% -32.0%
≤30d 1432 -21.5% -29.0% 53% 31% -23.0%
≤90d 1432 -21.5% -29.0% 53% 31% -23.0%
all 1432 -21.5% -29.0% 53% 31% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover310.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 31% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 28% -30.3%
15% -42.0% 21% -37.1%
20% -47.7% 8% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$699
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses760 / 672
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1432 / 1270
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day310.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 72¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 348 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -297%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $1.58 (match) · 3500 history records