Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7f97…6aaf sports 1443 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$337 (-2%) realized −$329 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%799W / 593L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$30
14 days−$9
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$35
world 9% −$3
crypto 6% −$229
other 2% −$85
finance 2% +$79
politics 0% +$17
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 51% -8.1%
≤30d 837 +3.6% -6.3% 60% 55% -7.7%
≤90d 1385 +5.4% -4.6% 57% 51% -9.5%
all 1392 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 51% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 51% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -18.5%
15% -22.1% 39% -26.4%
20% -29.8% 32% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses799 / 593
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1392 / 1443
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 1392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $115 $141 +$26 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 94¢ $25 $77 +$52 (+209%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 96¢ $16 $49 +$33 (+208%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 74¢ $40 $35 −$4 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 97¢ $16 $26 +$10 (+64%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 67¢ 84¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 74¢ 83¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 65¢ 68¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 83¢ 99¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 42¢ 99¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+135%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 453 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -280%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $16 +$14 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $8 +$5 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 +$5 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$6 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 +$16 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$12 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $8 +$8 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $54 +$86 +158%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 −$2 -22%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $6 +$6 +97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 +$4 +44%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 11m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2 11m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $6 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $4 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $7 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $16 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $13 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $4 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $4 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $8 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $2 8h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $16 11h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 11h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 63¢ $4 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $6 11h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $8 11h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 11h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $6 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $5 11h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $6 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.67 · official $856.54 (match) · 3500 history records