Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f96…c8c0 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$718per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$33
politics 7% $0
crypto 5% +$2
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 23 -4.2% -13.4% 22% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage638d
Avg bet$718
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? May 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $14,088 −$14 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 21 $221 +$5 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Mar 21 $413 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 23 $178 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 23 $215 +$1 +0%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Mar 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Oct 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 05 $415 $0 -0%
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Oct 03 $85 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 03 $110 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Oct 03 $89 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Oct 02 $255 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 02 $243 $0 +0%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Oct 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Sep 30 $85 $0 +0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Sep 30 $90 $0 +0%
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? Sep 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? Sep 29 $76 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Sep 29 $85 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $78 $0 -0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Sep 27 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.43 · official $40.43 (match) · 59 history records