trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | -4.2% | -13.4% | 22% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -21.6% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $40 | $40 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e | Jun 27 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana dip to $20 in March? | May 06 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 21 | $14,088 | −$14 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Mar 21 | $221 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Mar 21 | $413 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 23 | $178 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Jan 23 | $215 | +$1 | +0% |
| Berachain airdrop in 2024? | Mar 10 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Oct 05 | $89 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 05 | $415 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? | Oct 03 | $85 | $0 | +0% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 03 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Oct 03 | $89 | $0 | +0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Oct 02 | $255 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Oct 02 | $243 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Oct 01 | $75 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Sep 30 | $85 | $0 | +0% |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | Sep 30 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? | Sep 30 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Sep 29 | $76 | $0 | +0% |
| Manchester City wins the Premier League? | Sep 29 | $85 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Sep 27 | $78 | $0 | -0% |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Sep 27 | $100 | $0 | -0% |