Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7F 0x7f96…9451 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+13%) realized +$112 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$129
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$105
sports 6% −$1
crypto 3% −$20
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +14.0% +3.2% 31% 31% +28.1%
≤30d 61 +4.3% -5.6% 33% 33% +4.9%
≤90d 61 +4.3% -5.6% 33% 33% +4.9%
all 61 +4.3% -5.6% 33% 33% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 33% +4.9%
10% -14.7% 33% -5.2%
15% -22.9% 31% -14.3%
20% -30.5% 31% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$8 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+66%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 3¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 +$19 +139%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $31 −$15 -49%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $17 +$34 +197%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$31 +124%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 +$3 +32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$28 +140%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -67%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 +$58 +712%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +75%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $3 +$20 +649%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 +$7 +365%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$13 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$16 +105%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$56 +276%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$8 +109%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +180%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 +$33 +90%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 45¢ $32 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $8 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $4 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 41¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 59¢ $71 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 32¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.63 · official $68.88 (match) · 110 history records