Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f94…f992 sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$213 (-8%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$14
14 days−$10
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$30
crypto 5% −$89
other 5% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -37.9% -43.8% 30% 25% -12.1%
≤30d 49 -45.2% -50.4% 29% 27% -10.8%
≤90d 89 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 28% -17.6%
all 89 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 28% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 28% -17.6%
10% -46.5% 27% -25.4%
15% -51.7% 22% -32.6%
20% -56.4% 22% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$24 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 63
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage72d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$46 +150%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$18 +119%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$1 +29%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $41 +$82 +200%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $93 +$134 +144%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $66 −$65 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $21 −$10 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$24 +118%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 07 $30 +$18 +60%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$5 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $152 +$167 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $131 +$72 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $31 +$50 +165%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $76 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 72¢ $33 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $15 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $7 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 22h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 29h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $61 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 36¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 1¢ $5 2d
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 21¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 25¢ $5 2d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 27¢ $5 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 86¢ $123 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 38¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 25¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 26¢ $20 2d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 10¢ $5 3d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 12¢ $5 3d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 24¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records