Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7F 0x7f94…cb06 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,002 (-8%) realized −$1,002 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%45W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days+$240
14 days+$240
30 days−$732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$275
crypto 35% −$945
other 21% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -11.4% -19.8% 64% 28% -3.8%
≤30d 76 -15.5% -23.6% 59% 32% -14.8%
≤90d 76 -15.5% -23.6% 59% 32% -14.8%
all 77 -16.6% -24.6% 58% 31% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 31% -15.5%
10% -31.8% 25% -23.6%
15% -38.4% 18% -31.0%
20% -44.4% 12% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$88 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,002
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses45 / 32
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage152d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $201 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$12 +12%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $28 +$13 +46%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026-0 Jun 27 $120 +$57 +48%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $181 +$68 +38%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 +$4 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $147 +$194 +132%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Gilberto Mora: 1+ shots AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 A Jun 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$70 +69%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$11 +44%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $13 +$1 +11%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $17 −$17 -99%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 −$6 -22%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $61 +$31 +51%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 +$73 +238%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $46 +$95 +206%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $49 −$48 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $45 +$3 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$9 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $112 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 17h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $28 19h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $25 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records