Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f93…2843 crypto 28 markets active 7d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 65% 45% -12.9%
≤30d 27 -0.5% -9.9% 67% 48% -11.9%
≤90d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 46% -11.8%
all 28 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 46% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 46% -11.8%
10% -18.5% 36% -20.3%
15% -26.3% 21% -28.0%
20% -33.6% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage24d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records