Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f91…c0ef world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$3
other 39% +$2
sports 9% −$2
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 25 +13.0% +2.2% 28% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 44 +5.9% -4.2% 25% 7% -9.5%
all 51 +1.0% -8.6% 27% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 12% -9.7%
10% -17.3% 8% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage525d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-5%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $115 +$5 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $37 +$3 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $61 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $83 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $40 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $37 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $88 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 +13%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $237 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $238 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 23 $57 $0 +0%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $25 +$7 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 22 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Mar 21 $153 −$7 -5%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $281 $0 +0%
Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest? Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Feb 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? Feb 14 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the match between Manchester United and Rangers end in a draw? Feb 04 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Hoffenheim beat Tottenham? Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 22 $13 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $47 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $47 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $41 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $48 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.17 · official $30.24 (match) · 201 history records