Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f8b…b723 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-10%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%31W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$18
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$4
sports 14% −$10
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 49% -1.9%
≤30d 60 -13.5% -21.8% 52% 50% -13.6%
≤90d 60 -13.5% -21.8% 52% 50% -13.6%
all 60 -13.5% -21.8% 52% 50% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 50% -13.6%
10% -29.2% 40% -21.9%
15% -36.1% 32% -29.4%
20% -42.3% 28% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $25 +$19 +74%
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 29 $1 +$2 +206%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $2 +$3 +133%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $13 +$10 +76%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $3 +$5 +151%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 +$2 +180%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -21%
JCL T20: Alpha Quashers Yokohama CC vs Tokyo Falcons CC Jun 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 +$1 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 +$5 +89%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Tanger: Yassine Dlimi vs Lorenzo Rottoli Jun 27 $1 +$1 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $14 +$9 +64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 +$2 +64%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +87%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$3 +33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$3 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$2 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Hamad Medjedovic 37¢ $1 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 39¢ $1 6h
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 32¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 46¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 39¢ $2 29h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $8 29h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 39¢ $3 31h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 68¢ $1 33h
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 34h
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 39h
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 39h
JCL T20: Alpha Quashers Yokohama CC vs Tokyo Falcons CC BUY Alpha Quashers Yokohama CC 53¢ $1 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 45h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 40¢ $1 2d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 52¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 100¢ $1 2d
Will Henan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.07 · official $30.07 (match) · 121 history records