Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f8b…4ca3 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$820 (+17%) realized +$711 · open +$109
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$886
14 days+$886
30 days+$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$845
other 12% +$70
crypto 4% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.3% -4.8% 57% 57% +8.8%
≤30d 21 +5.3% -4.8% 57% 57% +8.8%
≤90d 23 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 52% +7.1%
all 23 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 52% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 52% +7.1%
10% -18.5% 52% -3.1%
15% -26.4% 43% -12.5%
20% -33.6% 39% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$86 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$711
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage38d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 17¢ 64¢ $40 $149 +$109 (+274%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $672 +$218 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $189 −$186 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $344 −$34 -10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $211 −$211 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $66 +$41 +63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 +$174 +156%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $203 +$55 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$85 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $219 +$94 +43%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $126 +$94 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $65 −$65 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $530 +$416 +78%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $201 +$150 +74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $266 −$12 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $334 +$221 +66%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $215 +$119 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $119 +$106 +89%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $60 −$12 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $418 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $41 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $730 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $161 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 66¢ $161 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $672 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $189 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $67 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $67 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $287 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $66 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $258 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $117 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $86 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $90 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $112 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $211 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $211 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $127 31h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $313 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $219 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $219 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $220 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $220 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $126 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.41 · official $149.41 (match) · 59 history records